Evaluation of Econometric Models by J. Kmenta

By J. Kmenta

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Kj, (21) giving pjk as the estimate for njk in Eq. 4). In Eq. (9), the sign of the standardization factor fj was left ambiguous. The sign chosen for the limiting factor f will, by Eq. (8), determine the sign for the array of estimated case values Xjn(n = 1 , . . , N) of the latent variable £j, and hence by Eq. (21) the sign for the array of estimated loadings pjk(k = 1,.. ,Kj). Thus for the jth block, there are two possibilities for choosing the sign of Xj and of the array of loadings pjk. The model builder should choose that sign for Xj which agrees with most of the presumed signs for the theoretical loadings.

R o b u s t analysis of variance of d e m a n d per degree d a y s : m o n t h effects. This analysis and others suggest that controlling for the year and the calendar month, and adjusting for degree days, the fluctuations in demand from month to month are unrelated to the fluctuations in price. Simple plots and regressions reveal that demand is explained by year as well as by marginal price and does not fluctuate with price within years. THE USE OF EXPLORATORY METHODS IN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 43 Decomposing demand and price into total, year, and month effects and residuals and relating the effects and the residuals revealed no additional structure.

Conservation trends in natural gas consumption from winter 1974 to winter 1978. Junior Thesis, Department of Statistics, Princeton University, 1978. Tukey, J. W. Exploratory data analysis. : Addison-Wesley, 1977. Welsch, R. E. Regression sensitivity analysis. , 1977. Welsch, R. , & Kuh, E. Linear regression diagnostics. New York: National Bureau of Eco­ nomie Research, 1977. Wilson, John. Residential demand for electricity. Quarterly Review of Economics and Business, 1971,11,1-22. EVALUATION OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS Model Construction and Evaluation When Theoretical Knowledge Is Scarce Theory and Application of Partial Least Squares HERMAN WOLD DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICS UNIVERSITY OF UPPSALA UPPSALA, SWEDEN INTRODUCTION During the past decade many econometricians have come to realize that the use of much of the contemporary set of rigorous tools of statistical analysis is not applicable in all circumstances, mainly because the knowledge re­ quirements of the investigator are far greater than are available.

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