Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's by Joshua Aizenman, Brian Pinto

By Joshua Aizenman, Brian Pinto

During the last ten years, financial volatility has come into its personal after being taken care of for many years as a secondary phenomenon in enterprise cycle literature. This evolution has been pushed via the popularity of the everlasting unwanted effects of volatility on long-run development and inequality, particularly in negative nations. After providing uncomplicated good points of volatility, this quantity investigates commodity expense volatility as an absorber and amplifier of shocks. the gathering then examines macroeconomic crises, that are pushed via a similar phenomena that make volatility tricky to regard successfully.

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Further analysis shows that while Latin American countries have generally managed to reduce the dependence of government revenues on coffee through diversification and market liberalization over 1990–2000, the same is not true for Africa. Four countries in particular have increased their reliance on coffee: Ethiopia, Madagascar, Rwanda, and Uganda. 22:5 P1: GDZ 0521855241ovr 20 CB932-Aizenman 0 521 85524 1 August 30, 2005 Joshua Aizenman and Brian Pinto Concern about the negative effects of commodity price volatility on welfare and growth prompted both developing and developed country governments, as well as multilateral agencies, to attempt to stabilize prices through most of the 20th century, but with limited success, if not outright failure.

The second focuses on the economic effects: 22:5 P1: GDZ 0521855241ovr CB932-Aizenman 0 521 85524 1 August 30, 2005 Overview 21 that is, on Dutch Disease28 and the potential for minimizing it through policies and institutional mechanisms. The chapter surveys this latter set of issues in order to provide policy guidance. The Dutch Disease effects of oil revenues are transmitted via two key variables: the real exchange rate and fiscal policy. A real appreciation is to be expected as part of the equilibrium response to an oil price boom.

The speculative attack on France in 1993 was puzzling, because the government had over the preceding years succeeded in attaining a level of macroeconomic discipline comparable to that of Germany, its partner in the ERM. Moreover, after the bands were widened, the crisis passed without a substantial further depreciation of the franc, even though there had been no tightening of macroeconomic policy in the meantime. How then could the fundamentals have been responsible for the earlier speculative pressure?

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